NFL Best Bets – Week 17
All game lines are from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be updated throughout the week as new plays are posted.
On December 28, 2021:
The Line: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys -5
The Pick: Cowboys -5 (-110)
The Cardinals are 0-3 ATS in their previous three games and are 3-5 SU over their last eight. The Cowboys rank 8th/1st in offense/defense DVOA vs. the Cardinals which rank 16th/5th respectively. The Cardinals lose stud LB Markus Golden (C-19) while the Cowboys are expecting LT Tyron Smith (ankle) to return.
On December 30, 2021:
The Line: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers Over/Under = 44
The Pick: Under 44 (-110)
The under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six road games. The under is also 9-3 in the 49ers’ last 12 games following an ATS loss.
The expectation is that QB Trey Lance gets the start over Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb). The 49ers rank 28th in total pace and 23rd when leading by at least 7 points. The 49ers are currently 12 point favorites. The Texans rank 18th in total pace, and 13th when trailing by 7+ points. This game sets up for a slow-paced, low-scoring scenario, especially with Lance under center.
The Line: Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans -3.5
The Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, and the Titans are 2-4 ATS in their last six.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 1st vs. QBs and WRs over the past four games, and they also rank 2nd vs. RBs during this span, behind only the Titans. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and 7th in dropback EPA, and only need to contend with WR A.J. Brown to stifle the Titans’ offense.
On December 31, 2021:
The Line: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -7
The Pick: Chargers -7 (-110)
The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. AFC teams. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. the AFC West.
The Broncos got hit with an Omicron cluster bomb. At this moment, they will be without LB Bradley Chubb, and WRs Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. WR Courtland Sutton may potentially be hitting the C-19 list as well. That would eliminate all 3 starting WRs for QB Drew Lock.
Scorecard: NFL Best Bets
Last Week Picks: 2-1
Cumulative Picks: 31-31
ATS = Against the spread
SU = Straight up
O/U = Over/Under
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