NFL Best Bets – Week 16
All game lines are from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be updated throughout the week as new plays are posted.
On December 23, 2021:
The Line: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers -7.5
The Pick: Packers -7.5 (-105)
The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and the Packers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. The Browns are coming off an unexpected rescheduled game last Monday, to head into a very short week this Saturday.
QB Aaron Rodgers is 68-36-4 ATS at home for his career, and is the MVP frontrunner at +125. Rodgers is one TD away from setting the all-time Packers record. A Rodgers to Davante Adams score would also set a franchise record as their most productive duo.
The Browns’ defense ranks 23rd in pass DVOA and 21st in dropback EPA vs. a Packers’ offense which ranks 1st in pass DVOA and 1st in dropback EPA.
The Line: Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals -1
The Pick: Colts +1 (-110)
The Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and the Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Colts rank 10th offense DVOA/6th offense EPA, and 8th defense DVOA/12th defense EPA vs. the Cardinals who rank 17th offense DVOA/7th offense EPA, and 5th defense DVOA/4th defense EPA. Not sure the correct team is favored.
The Line: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons O/U = 43
The Pick: Under 43 (-115)
The under is 5-1 the Falcons’ last six games and the under is also 5-1 in the Lions’ previous six road games.
In so many ways, both teams offer up a vast selection of delicious crap.
Scorecard: NFL Best Bets
Last Week Picks: 0-2
Cumulative Picks: 29-30
ATS = Against the spread
SU = Straight up
O/U = Over/Under
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