NFL Best Bets – Week 10
All game lines are from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be updated throughout the week as new plays are posted.
On November 11, 2021:
The Pick: Cowboys -8 (-110)
The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS on the year while the Falcons are 4-4 ATS. The Cowboys’ offense is ranked 3rd in DVOA vs. the Falcons’ defense which is ranked 31st, and the Falcons’ offense is ranked 25th vs. the Cowboys’ defense which is ranked 7th. The Cowboys basically own comparative mismatches across the board vs. the Falcons.
The Cowboys dropped a Texas-sized deuce in the sheets last week, while the Falcons pulled off the upset, but this should be a good get-right spot for the Cowboys at home.
The Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-115)
The Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and the Broncos are 5-4 ATS in their previous 9 games. A battle of Broncos’ offense vs. Eagles’ defense and the Eagles’ rush offense vs. Broncos’ rush defense. Edge to the former.
The Pick: Raiders +2.5 (-105)
The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games as a dog. The home team is 7-2 ATS in these teams last 9 meetings.
The Raiders’ offense ranks 1st in explosive pass rate vs. the Chiefs’ defense which ranks 27th. The Raiders’ offense also ranks 8th in pressure rate allowed vs. the Chiefs’ defense which ranks 24th in pass rush win %. Without pressure concerns, QB Derek Carr gets a positive matchup against the Chief’s pass defense ranked 27th in DVOA.
Scorecard: NFL Best Bets
Last Week: 1-5
ATS = Against the spread
SU = Straight up